The ambassadors of the 31 member states of the alliance have been gathered together, debating what they can, should, or will officially disclose on Ukraine while Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Rishi Sunak, Olaf Scholz, and so many more world leaders are present.
What’s the big deal, then?
It has been 500 days since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, during which time it has seized territory, attacked citizens, and kidnapped children.
According to the reputable Kiel Institute for the Global Economy, Europe and its close ally the US have rushed to Ukraine’s aid, spending $165 billion (£129 billion) in humanitarian, financial, and military assistance by May this year, much to Vladimir Putin’s dismay.
It’s been a delicate, occasionally uneasy,
“I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the Nato family now, at this time, in the middle of a war,” said US Vice President Joe Biden.He made the observation that if Ukraine joined, “if the fight is going on, then we’re all in war. If it were the true, we would be at war with Russia.
And 500 days into Russia’s invasion, Nato’s balancing act isn’t getting any easier.
Ukraine is clear. It wants an equal seat at the Nato table – with all the security guarantees that go with that – and it wants it now.
Or, because it recognises Nato can’t admit a new member while that state is at war, it wants at least “a clear signal that Ukraine will be in the alliance… not that the door is open for us, which is not enough, but that Ukraine will be in it”, says its media-savvy President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Anything short of that and he has threatened to avoid the summit altogether, to the irritation of not a few Nato members, including Germany and the US.
If Mr Zelensky is a no-show, the optics of Western unity with Ukraine – aimed as a clear message to Moscow at the summit – will be disastrous.
The main problem is Nato already told Ukraine it belonged in the alliance back in 2008, well before Russia’s invasion.
There are considerable expectations that Nato will now need to provide Kyiv with something else important. What then?
High-ranking diplomats from several important Nato countries spoke with me for this article on the condition of anonymity so they could express their opinions without restraint.
They claim that the shared belief that Ukraine belongs in the NATO “family” unites its members. But disagreements over the specifics persist.
The summit is taking place in Lithuania’s capital city of Vilnius. It is one of the three minor Baltic countries that were absorbed and conquered by the Soviet Union at the close of World War Two and are located in Russia’s backyard.
Estonians, Lithuanians, and Latvians all cry out in sympathy with Ukraine. They want Ukraine be offered fast-track Nato membership following an eventual ceasefire with Moscow, along with sister eastern European country Poland, which similarly sees itself as a previous victim of Russian aggression.
But Nato decisions require unanimous agreement amongst member countries. Germany, the US and the UK are among the more cautious.
Firstly, because of formal conditions the alliance would normally want an accession country to fulfil before becoming a member.
“Much as Ukraine deserves to be part of Nato, we have the same concerns now as we did back in 2008,” one influential diplomat told me.
“We need to see reforms, a fight against corruption and proper control over armed forces,” he said. But he added that he thought the Ukrainian authorities had learned a clear lesson from the corruption in Russia’s military that swallowed up billions and left the Russians weakened and ill-prepared for battle.
Some Nato countries also fret that if there is a cast-iron promise to admit Kyiv as a member immediately after a ceasefire with Russia, that could encourage Moscow to prolong its assault on Ukraine even further.
However, all member nations must concur on NATO decisions. Among the more cautious nations are Germany, the US, and the UK.First, due to formal requirements the alliance typically expects an applicant country to meet before joining.
Although Ukraine deserves to be a member of NATO, one powerful diplomat informed me that same worries still exist today.
“We need to see reforms, a fight against corruption, and proper control over armed forces,” he stated. However, he went on to say that he believed the Ukrainian government had learned a clear lesson from the corruption in the Russian military that cost billions of dollars and left the Russians unprepared for fight.
Some Nato nations are also concerned that if there is a firm commitment to admit Kyiv as a member as soon as there is a truce with Russia, that may encourage Moscow to continue its offensive against Ukraine.
As Camille Grand, a former NATO official and current defense analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, puts it, “strategic patience” is the first step. An unequivocal promise from the West that they want to stick with it. Additionally, Russia shouldn’t think it can beat the West to the Ukraine.
During my meetings with diplomats, I was surprised by how laid-back their nations were in regard to the delayed progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia.
They appeared to have the same perspective as James Cleverly, the British Foreign Secretary, who notes that “this isn’t a Hollywood movie.”
One ambassador informed me, “Moscow had a long, long time to plan for this invasion. “And now we anticipate huge success for Ukraine in three to four weeks? That is completely unrealistic.
Another chimed in, contrasting it with what he called Russia’s meat-grinder mentality, driving its forces “over the top” to get mown down in great numbers. “Ukraine is trying to make progress while respecting human life,” he said.
Do we have any concerns about how quickly Ukraine uses up its ammunition in private? Absolutely!” a more straightforward diplomat replied. But it’s crucial that the Ukrainians don’t feel as though we are putting pressure on them.
“They – and Moscow – need to know it’s going to keep coming,” said the president. “We’re giving them important military support that is becoming increasingly sophisticated.”
The European defense sector will be a key topic of discussion at the Vilnius summit, as will the investment required to keep supplies flowing to Ukraine while still ensuring that EU and NATO countries have enough self-defense capabilities.
Additionally, the issue of potential harmonisation is currently a bit of a jumble. Since each NATO member sends its own military assistance to Ukraine, Kyiv is forced to deal with a variety of armored vehicles, tanks, and other military equipment. Not exactly the most effective course of action.
Share your thoughts